TFM Midday Update 2-1-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower at midday in a narrow range following two consecutively higher closes to end the month of January. Export sales were good, but the prospect of a large South American crop continues to pressure prices.
For the week ending January 25, the USDA reported an increase of 47.5 mb of corn export sales for 23/24. This was on the higher end of expectations and was up 31% year over year.
Export shipments of corn were 35.9 mb but were still below the 45.7 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.
The January Cattle Inventory report which was released yesterday showed the US cattle herd falling to its lowest numbers since 1951 which could impact feed demand in a big way.

Soybeans are trading lower today after two consecutively higher trading days that combined for a gain of 27 cents. Prices are backing off today with pressure from poor export sales, lower soybean meal, but higher bean oil.
For the week ending January 25, the USDA reported an increase of 6.0 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24. This was a marketing year low, below the lowest trade guess, and down 19% from the previous year.
Export shipments of soybeans last week were 34.9 mb and were above the 23.3 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and Mexico.
Argentinian weather is still forecast to be hot and dry in the short-term forecast, but overall, weather conditions have been good and production estimates have been increased to 52 mmt.

Wheat is mixed at midday with Chicago mixed, KC wheat slightly lower and Minneapolis wheat firmer. While soybeans remain lower, the firm tone in wheat futures may be supporting corn a bit.
For the week ending January 25, the USDA reported an increase of 11.8 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.6 mb for 24/25. This was on the lower side of the trading range but up 4% from the previous year.
Last week’s export shipments of 9.8 mb were below the 17.3 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, the Philippines, and South Korea.
India is in jeopardy of warmer weather damaging its wheat crop with forecasts for the month of February warmer than normal while rains may be above normal.

Brandon Doherty