TFM Midday Update 01-25-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower near midday as the quiet trade continues with very little fresh news. Export sales were in line with expectations, and Argentina’s short-term forecast is on the drier side.
Today’s export sales report featured an increase of 37.6 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 1.5 mb for 24/25. This was on the higher side of the average trade guess at a time when US corn is globally competitive.
Last week’s corn export shipments of 36.7 mb were below the 45.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates, and primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and China.
Yesterday, the EIA reported that ethanol production fell by more than anticipated at 22% to 818,000 barrels per day which compares to 1.054 million bpd the previous week.

Soybeans are trading sharply lower today after sitting near unchanged earlier this morning. Export sales were not terrible, so the slide is likely due to pressure from both soybean meal and oil.
Since the beginning of the week, soybean meal has been edging higher after becoming oversold, but soybean oil has moved lower despite sharply higher palm oil. Crush margins have narrowed significantly which could impact crush numbers.
Export sales for soybeans were on the lower end of expectations with an increase of 20.6 mb for 23/24. This was down 28% from the previous week but up 6% from the prior 4-week average.
Last week’s export shipments for soybeans of 41.1 mb were well above the 23.9 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea.

All three wheat classes are mixed at midday with KC wheat leading the way higher after export inspections came in right in line with expectations. March Chicago wheat has rebounded 39 cents from last Thursday’s low and has broken above the 100-day moving average.
SovEcon has estimated Russia’s wheat production higher at 92.2 mmt, and so far the country has exported a record large 26 mmt in just the first 6 months of the marketing year.
Last week’s export sales report showed an increase of 16.6 mb of wheat export sales, which was within expectations, and an increase of 2.2 mb for 24/25.
Export shipments of 11.9 mb were below the 17.0 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimate of 725 mb for 23/24. Primary destinations were to China, Mexico, and Indonesia.

Amanda Brill