TFM Morning Update 11-03-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning as it continues to slide, and earlier, December corn came just 1 tick away from its contract low set in September at 4.67-3/4.
On Monday, 85% of the corn crop was said to be harvested and mostly clear weather this week likely saw a good amount of progress made. Prices are struggling with the arrival of nearly 15 bb of new corn from harvest.
Yesterday, the USDA reported corn export sales at 29.5 mb which was on the low side, and Mexico was a top buyer picking up more than half of the total sales.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 23% of Argentina’s corn crop has been planted, but Brazil will mostly hold off on planting their second crop corn for another few months.

Soybeans are trading higher again after yesterday’s solid gains. The combination of tight US ending stocks and South American weather concerns may be enough to see soybeans break out of their range.
There has been some talk amongst analysts that estimates for the national soybean yield are too high, and that the USDA could reduce that number in next week’s WASDE. This could bring ending stocks even lower than 220 mb.
Yesterday’s export sales were good at 37.1 mb, but shipments were great at 73.2 mb, and China was listed as the top buyer.
A global deficit of vegetable oil next year is very possible due to the El Nino pattern disrupting weather, and demand remains very strong.

Wheat is trading slightly lower this morning but did see some mild gains yesterday as prices moved off of their lows. Poor export sales did not help prices.
FAO-AMIS has cut its estimate of the world wheat stockpiles for 23/24 to 315.1 mmt which is down from last month’s 319.3 mmt.
Expansion of winter wheat areas in the US and Canada for next year are expected to be limited due to the poor crop prices this year.
Ukrainian food exports have risen by 15% in October to 4.8 mmt due to the creation of their own humanitarian corridor which primarily shipped grains to Europe and Africa.

Amanda Brill