TFM Morning Update 10-17-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning on harvest pressure and a technical resistance level for December corn at the 5-dollar mark.
Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that 45% of the crop has been harvested compared to last week at 34% and the trade guess of 46%. 95% of the crop is mature.
Export inspections for corn yesterday were below expectations at 434k tons vs 804k tons the previous week, but yesterday a sale of 7.8 mb was reported to Mexico.
Chinese corn prices are slipping down near their two-year lows on poor demand from the processing sector and low feed demand within the country.

Soybeans are trading higher again this morning despite harvest pressure as markets continue to see follow through from last week’s WASDE report which showed a carryout of just 220 mb.
Yesterday’s crop progress showed soybean harvest at 62% complete which was above the average trade guess of 57%, and 43% from a week ago. 97% of the bean crop is mature.
Export inspections were excellent for soybeans yesterday at 2.012 mmt, and inspections have now exceeded the seasonal pace needed to hit the USDA’s target by 28 mb. In addition, yesterday, a sale of 183,000 mt of soybean meal was reported to the Philippines for 23/24.
In more friendly news from yesterday, the NOPA crush report showed 165.456 mb of soybeans crushed in September, higher than expectations and a new record for the month.

Wheat is trading lower this morning with little fresh news to keep prices moving higher. The excitement from Chinese wheat purchases has died down with the lack of any new ones.
Export inspections for wheat were mild at 355k tons and within the average trade guess. Crop progress showed 68% of winter wheat planted vs 57% last week.
Ukraine has harvested about 65.2% of their 2023 winter grains which is around 3.3 million hectares, and 3.02 million hectares of that area was winter wheat. Exporting will likely continue to be a challenge.
Wheat harvest in Brazil is beginning, but rains in major wheat growing areas are concerning growers and could see output cut by 3.3% despite the total growing area being 12.1% larger than last year.

Amanda Brill