TFM Morning Update 10-12-2023

CORN

Corn is trading unchanged to slightly higher this morning as grains trade quietly ahead of today’s WASDE report which will be released at 11 a.m. central.
Estimates for today’s WASDE report have yields lower at 173.7 bpa and ending stocks lower as well at 2.148 billion bushels. World ending stocks are also expected to fall.
China is boosting their expected corn output for 23/24 to 288.94 mmt on higher yields. This would put output higher by 11 mmt than last year.
In Brazil, reports of restricted grain movement are popping up as drought conditions cause low water levels on the Amazon which has caused boats to run aground and get stuck.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning with support from higher soybean meal. Soybean oil is lower in the front months but higher in the deferred contracts.
Average estimates for today’s USDA report have yields at 49.9 bpa compared to 50.1 bpa last month with US ending stocks expected to increase, but world soybean stocks decreasing.
Low export sales this year have been the biggest hindrance to soybean prices with export commitments 32% lower than a year ago, but yesterday’s sale of 12.2 mb of soybeans to China and unknown may be showing that the US is entering its export window.
As in corn, the low water levels on the Amazon in South America are holding up soybean shipments which would be friendly to US exports.

Wheat is slightly higher this morning but still near its lowest levels in two years. The continuing problem is poor export demand as Russia sells its wheat cheaply.
Expectations for today’s WASDE report are for US ending stocks to increase from 615 mb to 646 mb, but that number could end up being higher.
China has been looking to import wheat after heavy rains damaged its harvest, and this occurrence could explain the surprise US sale of wheat to China last week.
England’s wheat crop has reportedly fallen by 10% to 12.81 mmt due to lower yields than expected, but planted acres were reduced as well.

Amanda Brill