TFM Morning Update 09-06-2023

CORN

Corn gapped higher at the beginning of trading yesterday evening on lower crop ratings. Since then, the market has filled the gap, but continues to trade higher this morning.
In Tuesday’s weekly crop progress report, the USDA lowered the good/excellent rating for the corn crop by 3% to 53%, which compares to last year’s 54% rating for the same week. The maturity of the crop jumped 9% as well to 18%.
U.S. corn exports are down 32% from last year, at 52.2 mmt, and EU corn imports for 23/24 as of September 3, were 2.7 mmt, 41% below the 4.55 mmt for the same week last year.
Low Mississippi River levels have forced barge lines to reduce volumes to New Orleans, which in turn has lent support to Brazil’s corn exports.

Soybeans opened 12 cents higher yesterday evening on lower-than-expected crop ratings. Soybean meal is currently trading sharply higher with beans, while soybean oil is lower following lower palm and crude oil prices.
The USDA lowered soybean good/excellent ratings in Tuesday’s weekly update by 5%. The crop is now rated 53% good/excellent, compared to last year’s 55% rating. The percentage of the crop dropping leaves also increased to 16%, from last week’s 5%.
Grain markets are becoming concerned about the water levels on the Mississippi River for the fall harvest window. Barge restrictions have been put in place, limiting grain movement, and will have the potential to impact cash basis levels going into the fall months.
July soybean crush was reported to be a new record for July at 184.8 million bushels which was up 2% from July last year. In order to reach the USDA’s goal of 2.22 bb, August crush will need to tie the 2019 record of 177 mb, which is possible as processors have been well incentivized with high crush margins.

Wheat is trading higher this morning with all three classes on the positive side of unchanged led by K.C.
Spring wheat harvest is clicking along with 74% of crop harvested as of Sunday, September 3, 3% behind the average for this date, but a 20% jump from last week. Winter wheat is estimated to be 1% planted versus 3% on average.
U.S. wheat exports continue to be slow and are currently running 24% behind last year’s pace with 4.3 mmt shipped.
There were reports of Russian drone attacks on Ukraine’s Danube River port of Ismail that damaged grain elevators and killed one worker.

Scott Masters