TFM Morning Update 08-29-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning following yesterday’s crop progress report but weather over the next two weeks is expected to be hot and dry.
Crop progress showed corn’s good to excellent rating falling to 56% from 58% last week and the average trade guess being 55%.
88% of the crop is doughing, 51% is dented compared to 35% last week, and 9% is mature compared to 4% a week ago.
While ratings didn’t fall much last week, temperatures over the next two weeks are expected to be far above normal while precipitation is forecast to be below normal for the Corn Belt.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning along with both soybean meal and oil as trade was expecting a much larger drop in crop ratings.
58% of the soybean crop was rated good to excellent vs 59% a week ago with trade expecting a rating of 56%. 91% of the crop is setting pods vs 86% a week ago, and 5% is dropping leaves.
November soybeans may be finding some resistance at the 14-dollar level with futures technically oversold and a gap lower on the chart at 13.90-1/2.
Brazil’s soybean crop for 23/24 is seen at 162.8 mmt vs 154.6 mmt in the previous year as production expands.

Wheat is trading lower again this morning with KC taking the brunt of the losses and Chicago following behind. Yesterday’s crop progress was slightly friendly for Minn wheat.
Yesterday’s crop progress for spring wheat showed harvest 54% complete compared to 39% a week ago and in line with trade guesses while the good to excellent rating slipped 1 point to 37% which was in line with expectations.
The Russian Grain Union has said that Russian exports of wheat have risen by 27% year over year in August to 6.4 mmt.
In Brazil, wheat prices have faded significantly with the monthly price averages at the lowest levels since 2020. 70% of the wheat crop is harvested in Brazil.

Amanda Brill