TFM Midday Update 07-18-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher today and is on track for the third higher close in the last four trading days. This comes after the withdrawal of Russia from the grain deal and despite an improvement in crop conditions.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed corn good to excellent ratings improving by 2 points to 57%. National corn pollination is now 47% complete with northern states entering their pollination phase.
The 8-to-14-day forecast remains dry and warm which could easily pose a threat to yield. Some rains are forecast to fall in the North while very scattered showers are expected in the Corn Belt over the next 7 days.
Yesterday’s corn export inspections were slow again with inspections totaling 14.3 mb for the week ending Thursday, July 13. Total inspections for 22/23 are now at 1.334 bb and down 33% from the previous year.

Soybeans are continuing their move higher and have taken out their more recent high from July 3 as soybean meal continues to rally on low Argentinian supply. Soybean oil is trading slightly higher.
Yesterday’s crop progress showed the soy crop improving more than the average trade guess with an increase of 4 points for a good to excellent rating of 55%. While an improvement, it is the second lowest rating since 2012, and only 20% of the crop are setting pods.
NOPA June soybean crush fell to a 9-month low of 165.023 million bushels, down from the 177.915 mb processed in May.
Chinese purchases of soybeans picked up last week, but they mainly sourced from Brazil and only bought small amounts from the US. There have been rumors that China has been buying more September and October beans from Brazil in the past week.

Wheat is trading higher at midday with KC posting the most gains and Chicago not far behind after Russia attacked Ukraine’s port of Odessa overnight in retaliation to the attack on the Crimean bridge.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed an increase in spring wheat’s good to excellent ratings by 4 points to 51%, but with the upcoming dry and warm forecast, crop conditions could easily drop back down.
Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal, in addition to their attack on Odessa, has sent wheat prices moving higher globally with Russian wheat reportedly up 50 cents per bushel in the past two weeks.
Winter wheat harvest in the US is now 56% complete but continues to lag the average pace of 69%. Harvest in Kansas meanwhile saw a 12% jump from last week and is now 71% complete.

Amanda Brill