TFM Morning Update 07-11-2023

CORN

There’s not much turn around on this turn around Tuesday as corn follows through this morning with higher prices and traders square positions ahead of tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report with an anticipated 2023 carryout in excess of 2.1 bil bu.
Crop conditions as of Sunday, July 9, for the US corn crop were 55% good to excellent, 2% above expectations and a 4% increase from last week.
Basis for nearby bids on corn shipped to the US Gulf firmed yesterday on limited supplies and rising barge freight, while bids for the deferred months softened on rising futures prices.
While Brazil’s safriha corn crop appears to be quite bountiful, harvest is behind. One of Brazil’s crop watchers AgRural, estimates the harvest to be 27% complete compared to 41% last year, which may be helping strengthen the domestic basis.

The soybean complex is mixed this morning with soybeans and soybean meal higher in anticipation of a near 200 mb 2023 carryout in tomorrow’s USDA report, while soybean oil is lower following lower palm oil prices.
The USDA rated the US soybean crop as of Sunday, July 9, at 51% good to excellent, a 1% increase from last week, but also 1% below trade expectations and 11% below year-ago levels.
Spot basis bids at river terminals, processors and elevators were mostly weaker yesterday as strong farmer sales fed the short-term demand on rising Board prices.
China has adopted new regulations to require imported soybeans to be quarantined in specific warehouses prior to entering the domestic market. While these new regulations will likely slow the importation process into China, it remains unclear what effects they will have on the overall market.

All three wheat classes are firmer to start the day with Minneapolis contracts leading the way higher as crop conditions came in below expectations.
As of Sunday, July 9, the US Winter Wheat crop was estimated to be 46% harvested, 5% behind trade expectations of 51%, which also compares to 62% last year and 59% complete on average. The USDA also rated the Spring Wheat crop at 47% good to excellent, which was 2% below expectations.
The President of Turkey is expected to meet with Vladimir Putin to discuss the Black Sea Grain Initiative with hopes of extending the arrangement past July 18, but the Kremlin has yet to confirm whether a meeting is scheduled.
According to IKAR, Russian wheat export prices are trading at $231/mt, keeping Russia the dominant player in world wheat exports.

Scott Masters