TFM Midday Update 02-24-2023

CORN

Mar corn down 7 @ 6.53
Corn is trading lower again today being dragged down by lower wheat, as well as slow export sales that have been expected to pick up
The USDA reported an increase of 32.4 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 1.0 mb for 23/24 and were down 20% and 30% from the prior 4-week average
Last week’s export shipments were 27.1 mb and were below the 48.4 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has lowered their corn crop ratings to just 3% good to excellent which is a an all-time low

Mar soybeans up 2 @ 15.36
Soybeans are trading lower with new crop month November leading the way down again on general weakness following yesterday’s outlook forum numbers
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange also lowered the crop ratings for soybeans to just 3% good to excellent as the drought and early frost damage the crop
The USDA reported an increase of 20.0 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 0.4 mb for 23/24 and were up 20% but down 18% from the prior 4-week average
Last week’s export shipments were 63.9 mb and were above the 17.5 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate

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Mar Chi wheat down 22 @ 7.16, Mar KC down 19 @ 8.42, & Mar MNPLS down 16 @ 8.92
Wheat is leading the grains lower this morning as Russia keeps offering significantly cheaper wheat than the US
China is beginning an initiative to negotiate with Russia and end the war in Ukraine which may be pressuring futures
The USDA reported an increase of 12.4 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 2.9 mb for 23/24 and were up 62% from last week and 39% from the prior 4-week average
Last week’s export shipments were 12.4 mb and were below the 17.5 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate

Apr LC down 0.350 @ 164.800 & Mar FC down 0.225 @ 189.000
Both live and feeder cattle are lower following poor beef export sales, but corn is lower, and cash is expected to be higher
Net beef sales of 15,400 mt for 2023 were down 45% from the previous week and 35% from the 4-week average
Exports of 16,700 mt were steady with last week and the prior 4-week average
Choice cuts up 2.23 and select up 2.23
Cattle slaughter projected at 121K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/23: down 0.03 @ 182.57

Apr hogs up 0.450 @ 86.650 & Apr pork cutout UNCH @ 93.175
Hogs are mixed to lower this morning after cash fell but the cutouts moved higher by 2.98 with bellies leading and up 10.02
Net sales of 51,900 mt were reported for 2023 and were up 16% from the previous week and 39% from the 4-week average
Exports were 29,200 mt and were down 4% from the previous week and 8% from the 4-week average
National Direct Afternoon report fell 0.27
Hog slaughter projected at 474K
CME Lean Hog Index for 2/24: up 0.20 @ 77.73

Amanda Brill