TFM Morning Update 10-07-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning and is back below its 100-day moving average after trading above it for three days last week. Prices are likely being pressured due to harvest in the US along with improved weather in Brazil.
In Ukraine, SovEcon has cut the forecast for the 2024 corn crop to 23.5 mmt from 24.6 mmt in its previous forecast citing dry weather. The export forecast for corn was also cut by 1.1 mmt due to lower production.
In Friday’s CFTC report it was revealed that funds bought back a whopping 63,000 contracts of corn as of October 1 which left them net short 67,699 contracts. In the past three trading days, they are estimated to have bought back an additional 4,000 contracts.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning and are primarily pressured by lower soybean meal as soybean oil is slightly higher. Rains have been falling in Brazil and Argentina as forecast which could be bringing more selling pressure.
In Brazil, soybean planting is 4.1% complete which compares to 7.8% last year and the 5-year average of 5.5%. In the largest growing state, Mato Grosso, planting is only 2.1% complete which compares to 14% last year at this time. Planting is certainly behind but should pick up pace as weather improves.
Friday’s CFTC report showed that as of October 1, funds bought back 40,092 contracts of soybeans which left them net short 40,092 contracts. In the past three days, funds are estimated to have sold 3,500 contracts.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Minneapolis leading the way lower. Chicago wheat is trading below its 100-day moving average after failing at its 200-day twice last week. Global weather remains supportive, but the Black Sea region received some needed rains.
SovEcon has revised the Ukraine 24/25 wheat crop higher to 21.8 mmt and has also raised exports due to strong EU demand. The EU has been too wet and in Australia too dry. The southern plains in the US have been too dry as well.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of 3,516 contracts of Chicago wheat which left them short 22,953 contracts. They bought back 4,676 contracts of KC wheat which left them net short 15,270 contracts.

Amanda Brill