TFM Morning Update 10-04-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning and the December contract has broken back below its 100-day moving average as reports from the field of very good yields come in. Corn has been following moves in wheat very closely and is likely following it lower this morning as well.
In Argentina, planting of first crop corn is off to a slow pace as a result of extreme dryness in South America. There is rain in the 2-week forecast for Argentina and Brazil, but it needs to materialize or the crop will have problems.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has said that the 24/25 corn planting progress has advanced to just 13.7% from 10.5% the previous week. Planting area was unchanged at 6.3 million hectares.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning, but prices have been trending lower for the past 4 days as Brazilian weather forecasts get wetter and scattered showers fall in the driest parts of central Brazil. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.
While Brazilian weather has been a big factor in recent price movement, the dockworker strike was also a negative factor in that it could have slowed soybean exports. Last night, the dockworkers made a deal with their management company and will return to work on East Coast ports today.
Yesterday’s export sales report was strong for soybeans with 1,445 thousand tons reportedly sold and China a main buyer. This was slightly below last week’s number but still encouraging.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way lower and breaking back down below the 100-day moving average after it failed at the 200-day yesterday.
The move lower today may be more technical as global conditions are still friendly for wheat with weather effecting production. For the week, December Chicago wheat is currently up 13 cents.
Russian wheat prices after months of very cheap export offers have begun to move slightly higher recently. This is likely a reflection of the ongoing and worsening drought in the Black Sea region that has limited winter wheat planting.

Amanda Brill