TFM Morning Update 10-03-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower to start the day but remains above its 50-day moving average and has traded above that level for the past three days. For the week, December futures have gained 13-1/2 cents as funds continue to exit short positions.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 600k and 1,000k tons with an average guess of 831k tons. This would compare to 535k tons a week ago. Corn exports should not be affected by the port strikes as they leave by barge and not container ships.
According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report, US ethanol stocks fell by 0.3% to 23.459m bbl. Analysts were expecting 23.367, and plant production was slightly higher than expected at 1.015m b/d.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning and have trended slightly lower over the past few days as weather forecasts have become more conclusive that Brazil will receive rain over the next two weeks that will improve conditions for planting. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 1,000k and 1,600k tons with an average guess of 1,319k tons. This would compare to last week’s 1,575k.
The port strike along the East coast of the US is ongoing and while effects have not been really been apparent yet, a week of this strike would see significant bottlenecks in Western ports that could impact grain exports.

All three wheat classes are trading lower to start the day but the December Chicago contract is meeting some resistance at the 200-day moving average again today after failing at that level yesterday. Adverse global weather has been supportive to the market recently.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 150k and 450k tons with an average guess of 297k tons. This would compare to last weeks 169k tons.
Russian wheat prices after months of very cheap export offers have begun to move slightly higher recently. This is likely a reflection of the ongoing and worsening drought in the Black Sea region that has limited winter wheat planting.

Amanda Brill