TFM Morning Update 10-02-2024

CORN

Corn futures are higher this morning yet again despite likely strong harvest pressure in the coming week. Strong exports and impressive domestic demand continue to dominate the headlines for corn.
The USDA released the Grain Crushings report yesterday afternoon which showed 472.7 mb of corn was used for ethanol production in August, this was up from 441.7 mb last August. July ethanol grind was revised higher by 10.4 mb as well.
December corn futures are trading above their 100-day moving average this morning. December corn has not had consecutive daily closes above the 100-day since late May.
Oil prices have been on the move higher this week after the missile attack on Israel by Iran, this rally in energy is helping to provide support to corn and soybeans.

Soybeans are trading slightly lower this morning as soybean meal prices have reversed sharply lower off of their overnight highs.
Soybeans have bounced around resistance levels near $10.60 November futures for the last four sessions. Excellent harvest weather here in the US and anticipated rains in northern Brazil starting next week have applied pressure to soybeans this week.
Yesterday’s USDA Grain Crushing report showed that 168 mb of soybeans were crushed in the month of August. This was down from 193 mb in July but right in line with expectations. It is typical to see as slow down in crush during August as maintenance at crush facilities is conducted ahead of the harvest rush.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with both the winter wheats testing major upside resistance levels. A dry forecast for the US Plains as well as the Black Sea region continues to support prices.
Russian wheat prices after months of dirt cheap export offers, have begun to move slightly higher as of late. This is likely a reflection of the ongoing and worsening drought in the Black Sea region that has limited winter wheat planting.
The US Dollar appears to have found some support and stabilization as of late after the recent Fed rate cut which was larger than expected.

Keegan Madigan