TFM Morning Update 09-30-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning but has recovered from lower prices in the overnight trade. The dry forecast over the Corn Belt is expected to last for around 10 days and should cause harvest progress to speed up which may be adding pressure to futures.
Today at 11 central, the USDA will publish its quarterly Grain Stocks report. According to a Bloomberg survey, the market anticipates US corn stocks as of September 1 to be 1.846 billion bushels, marking a 36% increase from 1.360 billion bushels a year ago.
Friday’s CFTC report showed that as of Tuesday the 24th, funds bought back 4,115 contracts of corn which reduced their net short position to 130,699 contracts. It is estimated that funds bought back an additional 25,000 contracts since the 24th.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning but have also rebounded from overnight lows as did corn. On Friday, soybeans ended the day nearly 25 cents higher with support from huge gains in soybean meal. This morning, both soybean meal and oil are trading slightly lower.
The USDA will release its Quarterly Grain Stocks report later today, which can sometimes contain surprises. Soybean stocks are expected to come in at 347 million bushels which would be up 31% from the 264 mb in September 2023.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 47,437 contracts of soybeans as of the 24th. This reduced their net short position to 74,978 contracts, but they are estimated to have exited an additional 20,000 contracts since the 24th which shows them nearing a net neutral position.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning as global weather continues to be an issue for wheat production. The Black Sea region is dry, Europe is too wet, and the winter wheat in the US has very little rain in its forecast.
The Quarterly Stocks and Small Grains reports will be released today, and a Bloomberg survey projects that it will show US wheat stocks as of September 1 at 1.992 billion bushels, up 13% from last year. Wheat production is estimated at 1.983 bb.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds selling 1,436 contracts of Chicago wheat which increased their net short position to 26,469 contracts. They sold 2,460 contracts of KC wheat which left them net short 19,946 contracts.

Amanda Brill