TFM Midday Update 7-2-2024

CORN

Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report indicated that corn conditions fell 2% to 67% good to excellent. Additionally, 11% of the crop is silking, which is above the average of 6% and last year’s 7%.
The USDA reported a flash sale of 100,000 mt of corn sold to Columbia for the 23/24 marketing year.
Heavy rains again fell in the northwestern Midwest, causing more issues in areas that have already experienced extensive flooding. The eastern corn belt is also anticipating modest rains over the next few days.
Ukraine’s export year just ended in June. According to their ag minister, their corn exports totaled 29.4 mmt, which is 3.4 mmt above the USDA’s estimate.
US corn basis has been firm, and one potential reason is because of the amount of corn in farmers hands. As of June 1, on-farm corn stocks totaled 3.03 bb, which is 37% above last year and the highest since 1988.

Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report indicated that soybean conditions held steady at 67% good to excellent, with 20% of the crop blooming, which is above the average of 15% but in line with last year. Additionally, 3% is setting pods versus 2% average and 3% last year.
August soybean oil gained 1.96 cents yesterday, which is the biggest single day gain for the year so far. This was a result of the US Energy Department’s report that said in April, renewable diesel plant capacity increased to more than 4.1 billion gallons per year.
Census crush data showed that soybean crush for the month of May totaled 192 mb which is up 2.7 mb from a year ago. That was at the lower end of expectations, but still a record for May. Additionally, cumulative crush for the marketing year so far is up 3.5% from last year which is in line with the USDA forecast.
Offering bullish support today is the fact that the US ag attaché in Brazil lowered their estimate of their soybean crop to 150 mmt. This is down 3 mmt from the USDA’s June estimate.

Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report indicated that winter wheat conditions slipped by 1% to 51% good to excellent, with 54% of the crop harvested—well above the 39% average and last year’s 33% pace. Meanwhile, spring wheat conditions improved by 1% to 72% good to excellent, with 38% of the crop headed, slightly below the average of 37% and last year’s 45%.
After a strong close yesterday, all three US wheat classes are trading lower at midday. This could be the result of profit taking as well as pressure from lower Matif wheat futures this morning.
Early season estimates of Russian wheat crop production were around 94 mmt. Since that time, analysts have lowered their projections, with most now ranging from 79-83 mmt. Additionally, Sov Econ lowered their estimate of Russian wheat exports to 46.1 mmt vs the 48 mmt figure the USDA is using.

Brandon Doherty