TFM Midday Update 6-28-2024

CORN

Corn is currently trading higher at midday ahead of the Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report. A higher close today would break the trend of the past 6 consecutively lower closes in corn.
In today’s USDA Grain Stocks and Planted Acreage report, estimates are that corn planted acres will come in at 90.353 million which would be slightly higher than the March planting intentions. US quarterly stocks estimates are at 4.873 billion bushels.
Today was First Notice Day for July corn and 744 contracts were delivered against July with prices attractive to end users. Both ethanol and export demand have been stout with exports potentially exceeding the USDA’s estimates.

Soybeans are trading higher at midday after the November contract made a new yearly low yesterday as traders await the stocks and acreage report. Weather is expected to turn colder in the northern Plains which could cause some frost risks. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher.
In today’s Quarterly Grain Stocks and Planted Acreage Report, analysts estimate that the number of soybean planted acres will come in at 86.753 million which would be slightly higher than the March planting intentions. Quarterly soybean stocks as of June 1 are estimated to come in at 0.962 billion bushels which would be higher than last year.
Today was First Notice Day for July soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil, and there were 1,137 soybean oil deliveries, but 877 of those contracts were taken by ADM. Funds are currently estimated to be holding a net short position in soybeans and its products of over 200,000 contracts.

All three wheat classes are trading lower in the September contract after prices rallied off yesterdays’ lows and remain above the recent low of 556 ¾ in September Chicago wheat. While prices attempt to recover from oversold conditions, harvest continues to pressure prices.
Estimates for today’s Planted Acreage report have all wheat at 47.657 million acres with 34.197 of those being winter wheat and 11.34 spring wheat. Quarterly wheat stocks are estimated at 0.684 billion bushels.
First Notice Day resulted in 1,129 deliveries against July Chicago wheat while there were no deliveries against KC wheat. Following the recent selloff in wheat the US is becoming more competitive with EU soft wheat.

Amanda Brill