TFM Midday Update 06-18-2024

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed Wednesday, June 19, in Observance of Juneteenth

CORN

Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report showed corn conditions fell 2% from last week to 72% good to excellent. Additionally, 93% of the crop has emerged, compared to 95% a year ago and the 5-year average of 92%.
Customs data from China showed that their May corn imports were just over 1 mmt, down 37% from a year ago. However, year to date imports have reached 10 mmt which is down less than half a percent.
The weather forecast shows chances of rain for Ohio, Illinois, and Indiana next week, but coverage is not expected to be widespread. Heavier rains in the northwestern Corn Belt could bring localized flooding.
Ag Rural has reported that Brazil’s safrinha corn crop harvest has reached 21% complete, which would be the quickest pace in 11 years.

Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report showed soybean conditions fell 2% from last week to 70% good to excellent. Additionally, 82% of the crop has emerged, compared to 90% a year ago and the 5-year average of 79%.
NOPA crush data yesterday was better than expected. The trade was looking for May crush to come in at 178 mb, but it came in at a record 183.6 mb. Additionally, soybean oil stocks fell to 1.724 billion pounds, which was below expectations of 1.775 and suggests good demand – this is likely due to increased biofuel production.
Despite palm oil futures down 1.15% on Tuesday, soybean oil is rallying, likely due to the lower than expected stocks number. Along with higher meal, this is helping soybean futures to rebound from yesterday’s selloff.

Despite corn and soybeans attempting to rebound, all three US wheat classes are trading lower at midday. Increases to crop conditions, harvest pressure, and better than expected yields for the HRW crop so far are all bearish factors.
Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat conditions improved 2% from last week to 49% good to excellent. Additionally, 27% of the crop is harvested, well above 13% a year ago and the 5-year average of 14%.
The Crop Progress report also indicated that spring wheat condition improved 4% from last week to 76% good to excellent. In addition, 95% of the crop has emerged, compared with 96% a year ago and 93% on average.
Russian wheat FOB export values, according to IKAR, have fallen to $234 per mt. This is about $18 from the season high and comes despite recently declining estimates of their wheat production. This development adds pressure to the US export market and futures prices.

Brandon Doherty