TFM Midday Update 6-14-2024

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed Wednesday, June 17, in Observance of Juneteenth

CORN

Outside markets may be putting some pressure on the grain complex, with crude oil trading a little lower, and the Dow down over 300 points as of this writing.
Other than in some of the northwestern areas, the forecast remains hot and dry for the US Corn Belt over the next week or so.
US corn export sales commitments are up 36% from last year, whereas the USDA is predicting a 29% increase. With Mexico facing drought, the higher than anticipated trend may continue for sales. US corn is also said to be competitive against Brazil.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s corn harvest is now 40.3% complete. Additionally, their estimate of Argentina’s corn crop is pegged at 46.5 mmt, well below the USDA at 53 mmt.

According to NOAA, there is a 65% chance of La Nina developing during the July – September timeframe. If it does occur, it is expected to persist into the 24/25 winter. Additionally, this could result in poorer soybean yields down the road.
November soybeans remain well below some important resistance levels, with that contract currently testing the 10-day moving average around 1157. The next upside resistance is the 100-day moving average, around the 1176 level.
The past three sessions featured flash sales of old crop US soybeans totaling over 11 mb. China and unknown destinations were the recipients. Today that streak was broken, however, with no announcements from the USDA.

Paris milling wheat futures closed below support at the 50-day moving average yesterday. So far today they are testing that level, which is now upside resistance.
Harvest progress continues to be a limiting factor for the wheat market. So far, overall yields have been mixed, but are generally better than expected for the HRW crop in the southwestern US.
Despite the potential for drought to increase in the Black Sea region, Ukraine’s ag minister is estimating their wheat crop at 1.5 mmt above the USDA’s estimate on this week’s WASDE report.
The Rosario Grain Exchange is estimating Argentina’s wheat crop at 21 mmt, vs the USDA’s lower projection of 17.5 mmt.

Brandon Doherty