TFM Midday Update 4-23-2024

CORN

According to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, corn planting is now 12% complete, up from 6% last week. This is in line with last year, and slightly above the average pace of 10%.
Corn futures yesterday closed above the 50-day moving average for the first time in three weeks and are holding above that level so far today.
Yesterday’s export inspections for corn were a marketing year high at 64 mb and came in above expectations.
Scattered showers are expected over much of the corn belt over the next few days. Heavier rains are anticipated later in the week and into next week, but the longer range outlook is a little drier into the first week of May.

The USDA’s Crop Progress report showed that soybean planting is now 8% complete, up from 3% last week, and in line with last year and double the average pace of 4%.
Brazil’s soybean harvest is around 90% complete, but there remains a big discrepancy between the USDA production numbers for South America, compared with most private estimates (which are lower).
Weekly soybean export inspections at 16 mb were ok, but inspections are running 18.2% below a year ago while the USDA is forecasting a 14.6% drop, which may indicate that their soybean export estimate might be reduced on the next WASDE report.
There are rumors that China purchased two or three cargoes of soybean from Brazil yesterday. Their demand has been on the slower side, and it is estimated that they have most of their needs covered through June.

According to the USDA, winter wheat is rated 50% good to excellent, down 5% from last week. Moreover, 17% of the crop has entered the heading stage, compared to the average of 13%. Additionally, the USDA reported that 15% of the spring wheat crop has been planted, showing an increase from 7% last week and above the 10% average.
US wheat is still uncompetitive compared to many world origins. Yesterday’s rally does not help the situation, as the export market is still dominated by cheap Russian wheat. Russian wheat exports are anticipated to be record large this year at 52 mmt.
Despite recent Russian attacks on Ukraine’s grain infrastructure, Ukraine is still expected to export as much as 7 mmt of grain in the month of April.
So far today, the US Dollar Index has dropped to the lowest level since April 12. Technically it appears to have more room to fall, which could be supportive to wheat prices.

Brandon Doherty