TFM Midday Update 04-15-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower today but remains rangebound and has hovered around the 40-day moving average for the past month. Over the weekend, Iran sent missiles and drones to attack Israel, but it was reported that 99% of the attacks were intercepted. Despite the escalation in conflict, crude oil and other commodities are lower.
This morning, the USDA reported a sale of 165,000 tons of corn to Mexico for the 23/24 marketing year. Mexico has been a primary buyer of US corn, and overall exports have been at a decent pace compared to last year.
In Michigan, three more dairy herds have tested positive for the avian flu. This brings the total in Michigan to 27 farms. While the avian flu reportedly runs its course in cattle within 7 to 10 days, this still could pose a threat to feed demand.

Soybeans are trading lower today with pressure from soybean meal and lower crude oil while soybean oil trades higher along with palm oil. For now, there are no weather threats in the US that would cause prices to move higher, and South American harvest is at a good pace.
Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress report, and expectations are to show that 3 to 4% of the crop has been seeded. The five-day weather forecast features a good amount of rain for the Midwest while the western Plains are relatively dry.
NOPA crush for the month of March is seen at a record high 197.787 million bushels. Despite crush margins slightly narrowing recently, they are profitable enough to incentivize processors.

All three wheat classes are trading lower at midday with the Chicago contract leading the way lower. Pressure is coming from lower Paris milling wheat along with a sharp uptick recently in the US Dollar which has made US exports even less competitive.
Russian wheat FOB values have risen recently which has caused global prices to move higher as a whole, but Russian wheat exports are still record large and called at 4.4 mmt for April which follows 4.8 mmt in March.
Kazakhstan has extended its ban on wheat imports for another 6 months from any country. According to officials there, the illegal imports of wheat to Kazakhstan have caused domestic wheat prices to fall by over 50%. As much as 2 mmt of wheat used to be imported illegally into the country each year.

Amanda Brill