TFM Midday Update 10-7-2024

CORN

The corn market has firmed since this morning’s lows and is trading a little higher with support from a positive turnaround in wheat and the USDA’s report of a flash sale of corn to Mexico.
The USDA reported another private export sale to Mexico for 155,000 mt of corn to be delivered during the 24/25 marketing year.
Midwest weather is expected to remain warm and dry this week, which should keep the window wide open for harvest, potentially adding harvest pressure to prices. The USDA will release its weekly crop progress report this afternoon. The trade is expecting harvest progress to be 38% complete.

The soybean market is trading lower, though towards the upper end of its range at midday as prices chop sideways following this morning’s reopening of the trading session. Soybean meal is trading about 2% lower and weighing on soybeans, while bean oil is trading higher as it follows garners support from higher crude and palm oil.
The USDA also reported a flash private soybean export sale to unknown destinations totaling 172,500 metric tons.
The weakness in the soybean complex could in part be due to the wide open harvest window for the US Midwest, and associated hedge pressure. The trade expects harvest to be 50% complete in this afternoon’s crop USDA crop progress report.
Another potentially bearish factor in today’s trade could also be the South American weather forecasts that show the anticipated return of the monsoonal rains later this week, which should aide in moving soybean planting along in Brazil.

The wheat complex is trading mid-range at midday as all three major classes reverse from overnight lows.
SovEcon recently raised its estimate of the Ukrainian wheat crop to 21.8 mmt. The firm also raised the country’s export forecast due to the larger crop and increased EU demand.
While Russian wheat export prices have been on the rise lately due to dryness and a potentially shrinking crop, and allowed US and world prices to rise, they remain the low cost leader in that export market, keeping them competitive to buyers.

Scott Masters