TFM Midday Update 10-04-2024

CORN

The corn market is continuing its slide lower following yesterday’s weak close, as end of week profit-taking and hedge pressure weigh on prices.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 198,000 mt of corn to be delivered to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
Potentially adding support to US corn exports is the fact that the French corn harvest is reportedly only 2% complete according to FranceAgriMer, significantly behind the 5-year average of 26% due largely to wet conditions.
Corn planting in Argentina, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, is 13.7% complete, although progress may slow as dry conditions are expected over the next 10 days before the next round of precipitation is expected.

The soybean market has turned lower at midday after rebounding in the overnight session from yesterday’s losses. Both soybean meal and oil have also turned lower, adding downward pressure on soybeans along with hedge pressure ahead of the weekend.
The US dockworker strike was suspended following a temporary agreement that was reached overnight. This tentative agreement will be in force through January 15.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 116,000 mt of soybeans to be delivered to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
US Midwest weather is expected to stay mostly dry and conducive to harvest for the next week or two. Meanwhile, the dry conditions in Brazil are still expected to turn more seasonable late next week with the potential arrival of monsoon rains.

The wheat complex is currently trading lower across all three classes as traders continue to book profits ahead of the weekend after this week’s rally ran into overhead resistance at key moving averages.
For now, it appears that geopolitical risks in the Middle East have lessened following the escalation of the war with Israel. The lack of further escalation is likely leading some traders to cover long positions ahead of the weekend. These positions, entered earlier in the week, pushed December Chicago and KC contracts to their respective 200-day moving averages, while December Minneapolis reached its 100-day ma
Earlier this week, Egypt cemented a deal to purchase 3.1 million metric tons of wheat from the Black Sea region, presumably Russia. Since that time, Egypt has also announced plans to reduce its wheat consumption by substituting corn or sorghum flour in its subsidized bread in a 1:4 ratio, beginning in April 2025.

Scott Masters