TFM Midday Update 04-22-2024

CORN

Financial markets are higher this morning, likely due to reduced tension between Israel and Iran. Some of this higher trade may be spilling over into commodity markets.
According to the CFTC, managed fund’s net short position in the grain complex reached 612,000 contracts as of last Tuesday – this is an increase of about 74,000 contracts from the previous week.
Much of the Midwest is set to receive rainfall later this week. This may slow planting progress a bit but should benefit conditions.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 17% of Argentina’s corn crop is harvested. This is behind the average pace due to too much wet weather and may continue to be hindered by more rain this week.

After a lower start to the day, soybean futures are higher at the time of writing.
As with corn, the Argentine soybean harvest is running behind. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, harvest progress has reached 14% complete, well below the average of 36%. This is also attributed to wet weather.
With cooler and wetter weather in the northern Midwest, soybean planting may be limited. In southern states, progress may have advanced a bit more, which should be reflected on this afternoon’s Crop Progress report.

Wheat is up sharply this morning, despite a rising US Dollar. This may be tied to heat and dryness in the Black Sea region, specifically, southwest Russia and eastern Ukraine. Western Ukraine is seeing colder temperatures, along with northern Europe.
Light frost was reported on Sunday in the southwestern US Plains. This may be offering some support to prices as well. Some parts of Europe also had frost concerns.
Soil conditions in the Canadian prairies are too dry. There was some recent snow that should help, but more moisture is needed.

Brandon Doherty