TFM Midday Update 04-16-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower today and is at the lower end of its very tight range. Yesterday’s crop progress report showed corn at 6% planted which is above the 5-year average, and yesterday’s inspections report showed a sizeable amount of corn inspected.
With 6% of the corn crop planted, it is the southern states getting most of the work done as the north is delayed by rains. Missouri is reportedly 26% planted, and main growing states may have to wait another week for conditions to dry up.
Yesterday’s export inspections report showed that 52.4 mb of corn were inspected for export, and this has helped to keep corn shipments up 34% from last year.

Soybeans are trading lower at midday and are now just 23 cents above the contract low that was posted at the end of February. Pressure is coming from the ongoing harvest in Brazil, the wrapping up of the growing season in Argentina, and the beginning of planting in the US.
Soybean meal was trading higher earlier this morning but has turned slightly lower, and soybean oil has been following palm oil lower. Palm oil is correcting from its earlier rally and is now 6% below its recent highs in the May contract.
According to AgRural, the Brazilian soybean harvest is now 84% complete which is 2 points below last year’s pace. There have been some delays due to rains, and the bulk of work is ongoing in the southernmost region of Rio Grande do Sul. The USDA estimates Brazilian production at 156 mmt.

All three wheat classes are trading lower at midday with the majority of losses in Chicago wheat. Winter wheat areas have been under pressure from recent rains, but last week, crop ratings fell by 1% good to excellent.
According to yesterday’s crop progress report, 11% of the winter wheat crop is headed which is above the 5-year average of 7% for this time of year. 55% is rated good to excellent, which is much better than last year’s 27%.
The USDA ag attaché in Ukraine is expecting the countries overall grain production to decrease in 24/25 along with lower exports citing unprofitable margins as a result of Russia’s invasion.

Amanda Brill