CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market rally took a pause on Thursday and prices finished lower for the first time in 5 sessions. Technical resistance at the 411 level seemed to hold on Thursday, setting up a potential double top on the charts. Friday’s trade action could be key for next week’s price direction.
• USDA will release weekly exports sales on Friday morning. New crop sales are expected to range from 700,000 – 1.4 mmt. Last week, export sales were strong totaling 1.494 mmt. Perceived improved export demand has helped stabilize the corn market, but the USDA has not announced a “flash” sale of corn since the market turned at 385 on August 28.
• Mississippi River levels around Memphis have become increasingly restrictive, with reports of barges running aground as water levels remain low for the third consecutive fall. The combination of higher freight rates and the recent rally in corn prices has made US corn less competitive in the export market.
• South American weather is becoming more of a focus in the corn market. Even though it is Brazil’s dry season, key growing areas are experiencing a strong dry pattern, which could delay the planting of both corn and soybeans. Rainfall chances will likely pick up as Brazil moves closer to its wet season over the next few months.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher after lower trade overnight and earlier in the day. There was initial pressure from an increase in yield estimates and scattered rain showers that moved through Iowa earlier today. Soybean meal was lower on the day, while soybean oil was higher.
• This morning, the USDA reported a flash sale of 189,700 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year and 126,000 mt to China for 24/25. This follows a sale of 131,000 mt earlier this week and confirmed some of yesterday’s rumors that China had purchased more US soybeans.
• Yesterday afternoon, StoneX released their updated estimates for the national US soybean yield which saw the number increase to 53.0 bpa. This is above the most recent USDA estimate, with some other firms like Allendale estimating yield even higher at 53.3 bpa.
• Brazil is only expected to increase its planted soybean acreage by 0.9% this year, the slowest rate of growth in 18 years, but production estimates remain very high at around 168 mmt which would be up 14% from the previous crop.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat posted losses in Chicago and Kansas City but managed a positive close for Minneapolis. This ended the six-day winning streak for December Chicago wheat and the seven day stretch for December KC. Some pressure resulted from a lower close across the board for Paris milling wheat futures, which also ended the run of seven consecutive sessions of gains. Profit taking after the run higher could have also played a part in today’s lower closes.
• French farming group, AGPB, estimated that the nation’s 2024 wheat crop would total about 26 mmt. That would be a drop of 26% from the 35.1 mmt crop a year ago. France saw much poorer wheat conditions this season due to wet weather conditions.
• Russia’s agriculture ministry has maintained its 2024 grain production estimate at 132 mmt. So far, 93 mmt of grain has been harvested, with wheat accounting for 70.5 mmt. Meanwhile, Russian wheat export FOB prices remain low, ranging between $216 and $217 per metric ton.
• Despite ongoing drought conditions, Ukraine’s agriculture ministry reported that 27,700 hectares of winter wheat have been planted so far. The total planted area for the 2025 winter wheat harvest could exceed 5 million hectares, up from 4.7 million in 2024, compensating for a reduced area planted with winter rapeseed.
• According to the USDA as of September 3, about 52% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, compared to 47% the previous week. As US winter wheat planting begins, more moisture may be needed to help with establishment of the crop.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The second month October Class III contract closed down 14 cents today at $22.86, but did close 46 cents off its daily low.
• Spot cheese was unchanged at $2.24/lb, entering Friday up just a half cent for the week. Spot whey was up a quarter cent today to $0.5675/lb.
• Class IV futures fell under pressure today with the October through January contracts down 23 to 29 cents.
• This came despite a positive day for the spot trade in which butter was 1.50 cents higher and powder gained a quarter cent.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Amanda Brill