CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Solid use and export data helped rally the corn market for the fourth consecutive day, as traders likely covered additional short positions, and December corn extended its move above the 50-day moving average.
• The USDA’s latest weekly Crop Progress report, released yesterday afternoon, showed that the good-to-excellent ratings for the corn crop held steady at 65%, compared to 53% at this time last year. The report also noted that 90% of the crop has reached the dough stage, 60% has dented, and 19% is now mature.
• The USDA reported that 473.5 million bushels of corn were used for ethanol production in July, marking a 4% increase from the previous year. Total usage for the 23/24 marketing year stands at 4.988 billion bushels, up 5.3% year-over-year, aligning with the USDA’s full-year projection of 5.450 bb with one month left in the reporting period.
• Today, the USDA released census export data for July, which totaled 207 mb. This figure is 9 mb lower than June’s, but it far surpassed the 94 mb recorded for July 2023. July exports also exceeded weekly inspections data by 19 mb.
• There are reports that India is pushing to increase corn-based ethanol production as it shifts away from sugar cane. This transition could turn India into a net corn importer by nearly 1 million metric tons, compared to its current exports of 2 to 4 mmt. Potential corn imports could come from Myanmar and Ukraine, with the US and South America potentially stepping in to fill the export gaps left by India.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher for the fourth consecutive day and so far, the November contract has gained 21 ½ cents on the week. Support has come from strength in soybean meal, solid crush demand, and a dry forecast, which is expected to last two weeks. Soybean oil ended the day lower with pressure from crude and vegetable oils.
• Yesterday, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed the soybean crop rating falling 2 points to 65% good to excellent. Last year, the rating was 53% at this time. 94% of the soybean crop is setting pods, compared to 84% last week, and 13% of the crop is dropping leaves versus 6% last week and the 5-year average of 10%.
• The USDA’s release of Census crush data yesterday afternoon revealed a record July crush totaling 193.4 million bushels, surpassing trade expectations of 192.1 mb. This brings the total crush for the 23/24 marketing year to 2.12 billion bushels, representing 92.6% of the USDA’s current estimate. Meanwhile, soybean oil stocks were the lowest on record for July at 2.01 billion pounds, slightly above trade expectations of 1.97 bp.
• In Brazil, farmers are preparing to plant soybeans but are dealing with above average temperatures that are expected to last through September 12 with many key growing areas expected to remain dry. Brazilian soybean planting typically begins in mid-September but could be pushed back slightly due to the weather.
• Yesterday, China purchased 132,000 metric tons of soybeans, and more rumors have circulated today that China may have bought an additional 350,000 to 540,000 mt of US soybeans this week. Export demand has picked up at a critical time for soybean prices.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat was the upside leader today with double-digit gains in all three classes. Today’s drop in the US Dollar Index, followed by a higher close for Matif wheat futures both offered support to the US market. Additionally, India’s domestic wheat price is said to have risen above $9.00 per bushel. This lends credence to the idea that India may need to import wheat, which is also bullish.
• Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report indicated that the US spring wheat crop is 70% harvested as of September 1. This compares with 68% last year and 70% average. Additionally, the winter wheat crop is now 2% planted, which is in line with the five-year average.
• Census exports for the month of July totaled 72.5 mb of wheat. This was far above the 55 mb figure from June and was up 13% from July of last year. Additionally, exports have totaled 128 mb for the first two months of the 24/25 marketing year and are up 19% compared to last year.
• European Union soft wheat exports as of September 1 have reached 4.38 mmt, according to the European commission; the export season began on July 1. This represents a 23% decline from last year’s 5.66 mmt of exports for this time. Nigeria was the leading importer, followed by Egypt and Morocco.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The September Class III milk contract gained 6 cents to close at $22.63 while the October contract lost 25 cents to close at $23.00 on Wednesday.
• Spot cheese continued to climb, gaining another 0.25 cents to close at $2.24/lb, which is the highest level since June 2022.
• Spot powder gained 1.25 cents to close at $1.3550/lb.
• Class IV milk closed the day red with October down 12 cents to close at $22.93 and November down 5 cents to close at $22.85.
• Spot butter lost 0.50 cents to close at $3.1475/lb. While spot whey lost 0.50 cents to close at $0.5650/lb.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg