CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures finished the week with higher trade fueled by a strong rally in the soybean meal and soybean markets. Concerns regarding the quality of the southern soybean harvest impacted by Hurricane Helene helped push October soybean meal 6% higher on the session. December corn, with today’s rally, finished the week 16 ¼ cents higher and posted its highest daily close since July 26.
• Even with the strong close, corn futures still failed to push through the 420-price level, which seems to be a swing point on December corn charts.
• On Monday, The USDA will release the September Quarterly Grain Stocks Report and final planted acre estimates. The grain stocks will be closely watched. Expectations are for stocks as of Sept 1 to be at 1.846 billion bushels. This will be up 485 mb from last year. Concerns regarding the large supplies of old crop corn could be a concern, with the possibility last year’s harvest was bigger than estimated.  The Grain Stocks report will set the goal post for prices through the harvest months.
• Weather in the western corn belt should stay favorable for harvest. Expectations is for corn harvest to be 24-25% complete through the weekend. Harvest pressure will likely limit corn’s upside potential.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply higher to close out the week with huge support from soybean meal which was up $17.30 in December just today. Some of the support in meal likely came from dry conditions in both Argentina and Brazil, and Brazil is expected to receive more significant rains within the next few weeks. Soybean oil ended the day lower.
• While some support in the soybean meal may have come from dry South American weather, that is not new information. The more likely support in meal today is the impact of the hurricane and flash flooding that is impacting the quality of soybeans in the South. There are multiple large hog processing plants in North Carolina that were reportedly locking large amounts of meal today due to the quality concerns.
• Soybean oil was slightly lower to end the day which was surprising given the strength in the soybean complex and the fact that a flash sale of 20,000 metric tons of soybean oil was reported for delivery to South Korea during the 24/25 marketing period.
• For the week, November soybeans gained 53 ¾ cents to end at 1065 ¾ and March soybeans gained 51 ½ cents to end at 1095 ¼. December soybean meal gained a whopping $24.90 to end at $344.10 and December soybean oil gained 1.00 cent at 42.36 cents. Funds were estimated to have bought back over 35,000 soybean contracts this week.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite a sharply higher trade in soybeans, wheat received little support and closed lower across all three futures classes. This decline may be partially attributed to improved chances for rain in eastern Ukraine and southern Russia during the second week of the forecast.
• The European Commission has reportedly lowered its estimate of EU soft wheat production by 1.5 million metric tons, bringing the total to 114.6 mmt. In related news, FranceAgriMer reports that as of Monday, 1% of the French soft wheat crop has been planted, which is in line with the average pace.
• Although the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has indicated the possibility of reducing its corn forecast, the outlook for wheat has improved. Wheat, predominantly grown in the southern regions, has benefited from recent rains, prompting the exchange to raise its wheat production estimate to 18.6 mmt on Wednesday.
• Ukraine’s wheat exports for the 24/25 season may be capped at 16.2 mmt. The country’s agricultural minister stated that limited supplies could necessitate this export cap. As of September 25, Ukraine’s wheat exports have totaled 5.6 mmt. For reference, the USDA estimates their exports at 15 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot cheese finished out the week almost 7 cents lower to $2.20375/lb. Over the week cheese lost a whopping 21 cents for its largest weekly loss since the week of September 5, 2023.
• Spot whey went unchanged on Friday at $0.5975/lb, but gained a penny on the week.
• Class III futures slid lower on the weaker cheese trade. Fourth quarter futures contracts lost 20-24 cents on the day.
• Spot butter continued its slide lower losing 5.75 cents to $2.7325/lb. Powder lost 1.25 cents to $1.3575/lb.
• Class IV futures were weaker as a result of poor product trading. Fourth quarter contracts lost 1-17 cents on the day.

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Author

Brandon Doherty