CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Sideways and choppy trade ruled the day again in the corn market as prices continued to look for directions. The most active May contract had a 6-cent trading range as prices finished slightly higher.
• The corn market is balancing a combination of an improved demand tone with heavy front-end supplies. End users are comfortable and do not have to bid aggressively to satisfy current needs.
• Weekly corn export inspections remain strong. Last week, the USDA inspected 55.9 mb (1.424 mmt) of corn for export, which was above the range of analyst expectations. Current shipments are up 35% from last year and ahead of the pace needed for the USDA marketing year targets.
• The USDA Crop Progress report is scheduled for release this afternoon. Last week, corn planting was 2% complete, primarily in southern states. With a forecast indicating potentially favorable conditions into mid-April, market observers will closely monitor the planting progress of this year’s corn crop in the upcoming weeks.
• Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its forecast for the Argentina corn crop 52 mmt from 54 mmt last month. The crop has seen damage from “Stunt Disease.” Crop conditions in Argentina have seen an 8% drop in the normal to excellent category over recent weeks.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower after relatively volatile trade, which saw July soybeans up as much as 8 cents earlier in the day before selling off almost immediately. Pressure came from lower soybean oil which was down by over 2% in the May contract as a result of lower palm oil. Soybean meal managed to close moderately higher today.
• According to Patria Agronegocios, the Brazilian soybean harvest is now 79.33% complete. Recent heavy rains in key growing areas have likely slowed down the harvest pace a bit as the harvest was 81.88% complete at this time last year. Total expected production is still up in the air with CONAB projecting a far lower number than the USDA, but the USDA may adjust its estimate in Thursday’s WASDE report.
• On Thursday, the USDA will release its Supply and Demand report at 11am central time. Early estimates for soybeans are for US ending stocks to increase slightly by 4 mb to 319 mb, and for world ending stocks to decrease slightly. In South America, Argentine soybean production is expected to increase by 0.4 mmt to 50.4 mmt. In Brazil, the USDA is expected to lower their production by 2.7 mmt to 152.3 mmt which would be in line with what the Ag attaché reported and closer to CONAB’s estimate.
• Friday’s CFTC report said that as of April 2, funds sold 3,476 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 138,256 contracts. Between corn, soybeans, meal, bean oil, and wheat, funds are short 593,000 contracts which is the largest in years.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat had a mixed close, with gains across the board for KC and Minneapolis futures, but losses in the front months for Chicago. This breaks a three-session higher streak for Chicago futures. Paris milling wheat also had a mixed close which may have offered some weakness to the US market.
• Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 18.3 million bushels, bringing total inspections for the 23/24 season to 634 million bushels. This represents an 11% decrease compared to last year, with wheat inspections currently lagging behind the USDA’s estimated pace.
• New attacks over the weekend at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant are raising concerns about the potential for a radiological disaster for the surrounding growing region. This plant was the same one that was previously in the news for similar reasons. Despite this news, the wheat market shrugged it off as traders have become numb to these attacks.
• According to SovEcon, Russia exported 1.03 mmt of grain last week, including 820,000 mt of wheat. That is down from 840,000 the previous week. In addition, IKAR has said that Russian export values ended last week at $210 per mt, which is up $2 from the previous week. Despite the increase, wheat out of the Black Sea region remains the world’s most competitive.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The late week enthusiasm carried over into the new week for Class III futures today with the May and June contracts up 34 and 35 cents, respectively.
• Spot cheese was higher for the fifth time in seven sessions, jumping 3.625 cents to $1.55875/lb. Barrels still sit at a 1.75 cent premium to blocks.
• Class IV action was quiet for the remaining 2024 contracts outside of gains in July and August. The Q1 2025 futures did close higher on some buying as well.
• Spot butter moved to within 3 cents of the $3.00/lb mark with today’s move. The last time it traded above $3.00 was early November.

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Author

John Heinberg