CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn prices posted some recovery today after the USDA report yesterday and pressure throughout the week. The overall direction for the corn market is still a sideways pattern, but May corn futures closed 1 ¼ cents higher for the week.
• Argentina’s corn production saw reductions this week by groups of analysts as a leafhopper infestation has triggered infections of “Stunt disease”, limiting the yield in the soon to be harvested crop. The crop reductions have improved the premiums of Argentine corn.
• The positive on the Thursday USDA report was the increase in demand adjustments for ethanol and feed usage, reflecting the strong corn disappearance during the first quarter as shown by the USDA’s Grain Stock report.
• The current stocks-to-use ratio in corn is 14.5%, which is the largest in the past 5 years. The projected stocks-to-use ratio for the 24/25 marketing year is currently 15.9%, the highest since 2006. The large supply potential of US corn will keep rallies limited without some true bullish news event.
• Weather forecasts and the planting pace will now be the focus of the corn market. Expectations are for temperatures to stay above normal into the end of April, which could allow for planting progress to pick up speed for this year’s US corn crop. The biggest near-term concern could be wetness in the eastern Corn Belt with predicted rains.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day significantly higher and ended the week with the May contract recovering most of the past two days’ losses and closing just below the 40-day moving average. End-of-week profit taking and a flash sale reported this morning were likely supportive to prices today. Soybean meal ended sharply higher while soybean oil was lower.
• For the week, May soybeans lost 11 cents, and November soybeans lost 8 ½, to close at 1174 and 1176 ¼ respectively. May soybean meal gained $11.30 to close at $344.40, and May soybean oil lost 3.00 cents and closed at 45.89 cents. The bulk of this week’s gains in soybean meal were achieved today. Soybean oil has been dragged lower by palm oil.
• This morning, the USDA reported that 124,000 metric tons of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year. This was the third sale to unknown destinations announced this week and the fourth in the past two weeks after a long period with none.
• Yesterday, CONAB released its estimate for Brazilian soybean production which saw it lowered to 146.5 mmt. A few hours later, the USDA released its estimate but made no changes from last month and kept the number steady at 155 mmt. This is a large discrepancy which should narrow as harvest nears completion.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• All three wheat classes finished the session with gains, despite a rising US Dollar and somewhat bearish tone to yesterday’s USDA report. It is possible that funds were covering some of their short positions in the grain complex due to global uncertainty, with two major wars escalating. There is some concern that the Israel / Hamas conflict may expand beyond that region with the threat of retaliation from Iran after recent attacks against some of their leaders.
• Paris milling wheat finished 1.75 to 2.50 Euros per mt higher today. Although it remains in a relatively sideways pattern, today’s rally may be tied to declining conditions for the French wheat crop. Conditions are reported to have declined to 64% good to excellent due to weather issues, namely overly wet weather.
• Russia is reported to have attacked and destroyed the Trypillya coal-fired power plant near Kyiv, Ukraine that provided power to about three million customers. Russia has become more aggressive towards Ukraine’s power facilities as they target infrastructure. It is worth noting that this is not the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant that has been in previous headlines.
• The US Dollar Index rallied above the 106 level today and at the time of writing, is maintaining that strength. The index has not been this high since early November and is showing no signs of slowing down. Though wheat finished positive today, this could act as an anchor for the market as it makes it more expensive for importing nations to buy US goods.
• The Australian Weather Bureau forecasts that the majority of their primary crop regions will experience rainfall levels ranging from median to above median during the June to August period, improving the chances for better yields of winter crops, including wheat.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The spot cheese block/barrel average finished the week with a strong up day on Friday, gaining 2.50c to $1.55375/lb on a whopping 26 loads traded.
• Cheese had an up-and-down week, ultimately adding 3.125c and closing higher for the third week in a row.
• Butter was able to recover 2.75c on Friday, but did close the week a bit softer overall, falling 2c.
• Class III milk futures had a strong finish to the week, as May added 37c and June gained 24c on Friday. Class IV milk was a bit softer to close the week.
• Support for dairy may have come from a higher feed market Friday. Corn jumped 6.75c while soybean meal was up over $8/ton.

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Author

Amanda Brill