CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market stayed trapped between the other grains during the session. Selling pressure in the soybean market limited gains, but positive trade in the wheat markets provided support as the market stayed choppy.
• The USDA will release the April WASDE report tomorrow, Thursday, April 11. Expectations are for corn ending stocks to be reduced to 2.102 billion bushels, down 70 mb from last month. This should reflect the strong first quarter corn usage as reflected in last month’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report.
• The corn production numbers for Brazil and Argentina may be more of a focus for the market on the WASDE report.  Current USDA estimates are well above analyst estimates for both Argentina and Brazil corn crops. Traders will be watching to see if the gap between the two narrows. The Brazilian Ag agency, CONAB, will also release its production estimates on Thursday morning.
• The USDA will release weekly corn sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for new sales range from 750,000 –1.3 mmt. Last week, new corn sales totaled 947,000 mt.
• Weather forecasts for temperatures into the end of April are predicted to stay above normal, which could allow for planting progress to pick up speed for this year’s US corn crop. The biggest near-term concern could be wet planting in the eastern corn belt with predicted rains.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed lower for the third consecutive day, mainly due to pressure from lower soybean meal, while soybean oil made a recovery and finished the day slightly higher. A big bearish factor today was the sharp increase in the US Dollar Index which makes US exports more expensive, and slow exports have already been an issue.
• Today, consumer price index (CPI) data was released by the Labor Department, which showed that consumer prices rose by 3.5% in March from the previous year. The consumer price index rose by 0.4% from February to March instead of the 0.3% that was expected, and this has traders concerned that with inflation higher than expected, interest rates may not be lowered this year. This caused the dollar to rally, which is typically bearish for commodities.
• This morning, private exporters reported a flash sale of 254,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. Estimates for tomorrow’s Export Sales report have soybean sales between 200k and 600k tons, and the report will include the 152,000 mt flash sale reported last week.
• Tomorrow, the USDA will release its WASDE report at 11am CDT. No major changes are anticipated, but estimates are for US ending stocks to increase slightly by 4 mb to 319 mb and for world ending stocks to decrease slightly. In South America, Argentine soybean production is expected to increase by 0.4 mmt to 50.4 mmt. In Brazil, the USDA is expected to lower their production by 2.7 mmt to 152.3 mmt.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Though Kansas City wheat ended with double-digit gains, Chicago did not show much strength, but it was able to claw its way back to a positive close with support from Matif wheat, which gained 2.75-3.50 euros today. Minneapolis also posted small gains. The strength in the wheat complex came despite the US Dollar rising to the highest level since mid-November after today’s CPI data indicated inflation was higher than expected.
• Some of today’s strength in wheat may have stemmed from reports that Russian wheat FOB values have steadily climbed by $14 over the past three weeks. They remain the world’s cheapest offer and at a $20 discount to France and Germany, but with the gap beginning to narrow, it may allow US wheat to become more competitive down the road.
• Traders will shift their focus tomorrow towards the highly anticipated monthly WASDE report. Regarding wheat, significant changes are not anticipated. Global carryout is expected to remain steady at 258.6 mmt, nearly unchanged from last month’s 258.8 mmt, yet lower compared to 271.1 mmt from the previous year. The average ending stocks estimate for US wheat stands at 685 mb, up from 673 mb in March and from 570 mb last year. Estimates for wheat production in 24/25 won’t be disclosed tomorrow; traders will need to await the May WASDE report for that information.
• Two vessels destined for Egypt carrying Russian wheat were held up at Russian ports due to quality concerns. One of the ships is now on the way after Egypt’s Foreign Ministry stepped in to resolve the dispute; some are suggesting that the Kremlin is attempting to take more control of exports. On a related note, there has been talk that Russia may count crop production in occupied Ukrainian territory towards their own numbers. This would bring Russia’s wheat crop from 90-92 mmt to 100 mmt, but the USDA may not acknowledge these adjustments.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wednesday’s spot dairy session set a weaker tone to futures. The spot butter market fell 4c, whey lost 0.50c, and cheese was down 0.125c.
• Commodity markets may have been under pressure Wednesday from a rallying Dollar, which soared over 100 points. CPI data came in hot, with inflation accelerating compared to expectations. 
• Nearby Class III futures were down anywhere from a penny to 13c. There was a bit of bidding in the future months, though.
• Class IV milk saw no contracts trade in the 2024 strip, despite some heavy offering in the spot butter trade.
• Powder was the lone bright spot for the dairy complex, as the spot market recovered a penny to $1.1450/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty