CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Strong wheat prices and geopolitical events triggered additional buying in the corn market as prices closed higher. December corn futures close above the 100-day moving average for the first time since June 13. The improved technical picture and strong money flow will likely lead to additional short covering in the corn market despite corn harvest ramping up.
• During the session, Iran launched missiles into Israel, which triggered strong buying in the crude oil markets. That buying strength faded as the session moved into the afternoon, but the strength in crude oil supported the commodity space in general.
• Harvest pressure will remain a factor in the market as the US corn harvest is 21% complete, matching last year’s progress at this time and ahead of the 5-year average. Weather forecasts predict favorable conditions for the next few days, which should help maintain a good harvest pace.
• USDA announced a flash sale of corn before the session this morning. Unknown destination picked up 195,000 mt of corn for delivery in the current market year.
• Wheat futures may continue to lead the corn market higher, closing at their highest levels since early July. This was driven by hot, dry weather in the Black Sea region and rising geopolitical tensions. The buying strength in wheat has also supported the corn market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day nearly unchanged after a day of volatile trade that saw prices dip as low as 1045 and as high as 1065 ½ in the November contract. The escalation of conflict in the Middle East as well as the dockworker’s port strike likely added to the volatility with macro influences. Soybean meal ended the day higher while soybean oil was lower despite higher crude.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the soybean good to excellent rating unchanged from a week ago at 64%. 81% of the crop is dropping leaves and 26% is harvested which compares to 13% a week ago and the average of 18%.
• This morning, the USDA reported private export sales of 195,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
• With dockworkers at ports on the East Coast of the country from Maine to Texas now on strike, exports of ag products could be affected. Soybeans and soybean meal are exported on cargo ships that typically leave out of the West Coast, but with other trade being routed through the western ports, bottlenecks may occur and have a negative impact on soybeans.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat posted double-digit gains in all three classes alongside sharply higher Matif wheat futures. US wheat appeared to ignore the negativity of a higher US Dollar Index, as well as the port worker strike that did occur last night. However, a statement from the USDA did seem to indicate that grains would be largely unaffected by this strike.
• According to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, US winter wheat is 39% planted as of September 29. This is ahead of the 36% pace last year and the 38% average. Additionally, 14% of the crop has emerged, which is just above 13% from both last year and the 5-year average.
• According to both SovEcon and IKAR, Russian wheat export FOB values have increased to around $221-$222 per mt. This is up from the $217 area just a day or two ago. A continued rise in Russian prices would be bullish, as it would make US wheat exports more competitive globally.
• This afternoon, news outlets reported that Iran had launched dozens of missiles into Israel in retaliation for the killing of a Hezbollah leader. This had the crude oil market up sharply, which may have lent some support to the grain complex. In addition, fears of an all-out war in the Middle East may have lent some strength to wheat, as it is a staple grain in that region.
• The EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit projected the 2024 Russian wheat crop at 82.9 mmt, down 11% from the previous year’s 93.6 mmt. Weather extremes, including both overly wet conditions as well as hot and dry spells, are cited as the reason for the decline.
• Ukraine’s agriculture ministry reported that 1.82 million hectares of winter grains have been planted so far, which is about 35% of the total intended area. Of this, winter wheat accounts for 1.7 million hectares, or approximately 93% of the total.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot cheese finished down for the 8th day in a row, dropping 2.1250 cents to close at $2.11250/lb.
• Spot whey saw some gains today, closing up 0.50 cents at $0.6025/lb.
• Class III futures closed today with some red on the board with November down 27 cents to close at $22.61, while December fell 10 cents to close at $21.51.
• Spot butter continued its slide lower losing 5.50 cents to $2.7500/lb. Powder lost 0.25 cents to $1.3575/lb.
• Class IV November futures finished down 26 cents to close at $21.21.

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Author

Amanda Brill