CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market took the lower than expected Quarterly Grain Stocks report to push higher on the session to start the week. The daily close on December corn today at 426 ¾ was the highest daily close since the end of June. The positive price action could lead corn price higher to test the 100-day moving average at 429 area, the next key level of resistance.
• USDA stated on the Quarterly Grain Stocks report that US corn supplies as of September 1 totaled 1.760 billion bushels which was 84 million bushels below pre-report expectations. The corn stockpile saw very good Q4 disappearance, and a small reduction (1.08 mb) off last year’s production to reach the total.
• Despite being below expectations, corn stockpiles were up 29% year-over-year or 400 million bushels. On farm storage remains heavy at 44.3% of the stockpile still being stored in producers’ hands. This was slightly better than last year, but well above the 10-year average for storage rate at 36%.
• Weekly export inspection for corn remains strong, as last week US exporters shipped 1.140 MMT (44.9 mb) of corn on the export market. Year to date, corn export inspections are 24% ahead of last year.
• US corn harvest will continue to progress. Last week, the expected harvest was 14% complete. Expectation for corn harvest to be around 25% complete on this week’s Crop Progress report. Hedge pressure as harvest moves along will likely be a limiting force on corn market’s potential upside in the near term.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed lower after a day of volatile trade that saw prices trading on either side of unchanged. The Quarterly Grain Stocks report today was neutral for soybeans and although the initial reaction was positive, prices faded into the day. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil rallied with the December contract gaining 2.25%.
• Today’s US Quarterly Grain Stocks report saw corn stocks fall by 1.08 million bushels to 1.76 billion bushels. This was towards the lower end of trade estimates and was below the average trade guess of 1.844 billion bushels. There was a slight reduction in 23/24 crop production, and corn futures responded bullishly to the report.
• Today’s export inspections report was average for soybeans with soybean inspections totaling 24.8 mb for the week ending September 26. Total inspections for 24/25 are now at 71 mb, which is down 3% from the previous year.
• This morning, private exporters reported sales of 116,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 47,437 contracts of soybeans as of the 24th. This reduced their net short position to 74,978 contracts, but they are estimated to have exited an additional 20,000 contracts since the 24th, which shows them nearing a net neutral position.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed higher, led by strength in Minneapolis futures. Today’s data was neutral to somewhat supportive for the wheat complex, but along with higher Matif futures, offered a boost to the market. The quarterly stocks number, though above last year, saw little change from pre-report expectations; the trade was looking for 1.984 bb and the actual figure came in at 1.986 bb. In a similar fashion, US 24/25 all wheat production came in at 1.971 bb, which was above last year’s 1.812 bb but below the average trade guess of 1.984 bb.
• Weekly wheat inspections at 19.7 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections to 303 mb, which is up 35% from last year. Inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s estimate, and 24/25 exports are projected at 825 mb, up 17% from last year.
• As of writing, an estimated 45,000 dockworkers will strike at midnight tonight. This could cause massive disruptions along the US east coast and gulf coast, delaying the transport and logistics of US grains and other goods. This strike could reportedly affect 36 ports, which handle about half of the shipments of goods in and out of the US.
• According to the European Commission, total grain production for the EU is now estimated at 260.9 mmt, which is a reduction from the August projection of 264.5 mmt. The 24/25 soft wheat harvest in particular is now estimated at 114.6 mmt, down from 116.1 mmt in August.
• The USDA is estimating the 24/25 Russian wheat crop at 83 mmt. However, some believe that the following year will see an increase in production. According to Rusagrotrans, the 25/26 crop is expected to rise to 87 mmt. On a related note, Russia currently continues to offer cheap wheat for export, around $217 per mt on a FOB basis, which may limit upside movement for futures prices.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The US block/barrel average cheese price has closed red seven days in a row, falling a total of $0.30875/lb. Class III futures have held up surprisingly well.
• Despite the offering in cheese, Class III futures caught a steady bid across the board Monday. October added 19c to $23.31 while November added 39c to $22.88.
• Class IV futures recovered a bit, as well as the spot butter trade jumped 7.25c to $2.8050/lb. This may have returned some positive sentiment back to the market.
• Barrel cheese lost a whopping 15c today to close at $2.1475/lb. The spread between blocks and barrels has been cut to just 2.75c now.
• The market awaits tomorrow’s Global Dairy Trade auction to see if global demand can match these high US prices.

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Author

John Heinberg