CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• With little fresh news to lift prices, the corn market gave up early morning gains and drifted lower on disappointing export sales, carryover weakness from wheat, and a near-term “rain makes grain” forecast that shows normal to above normal rain with above normal temperatures, despite areas of localized flooding in the upper Midwest and overnight temperatures in the 70s in the eastern Corn Belt.
• Due to the Juneteenth holiday on Wednesday, the USDA released its weekly export sales report this morning. New corn sales for the week ending June 13 came in below the range of expectations at just 23.8 mb, 20.1 mb for the 23/24 marketing year, and 3.7 mb for new crop 24/25. Shipments totaled 49.2 mb.
• Weekly ethanol production for the week ending June 14 was 1.057 million barrels per day versus average analyst expectations of 1.055 million, with stocks totaling 23.617 m. barrels. A total of 104.91 million bushels of corn were used for production, behind the weekly average of 110.94 million needed to reach the USDA’s goal of 5.45 billion bushels.
• Expectations for Monday’s upcoming Crop Progress report are for slight declines in crop ratings. Given that the most recent corn rating of 72% good to excellent is historically high for this time of year, a significant drop in conditions may be needed to counter the recent bearish trend.
• Next Friday, traders will receive both the Quarterly Stocks and Acreage reports. With expectations that June 1 corn stocks are higher than last year, rallies may be limited with the idea that farmers may be selling old crop inventory into them.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher after yesterday’s sharp sell-off that brought prices to their lowest levels since the end of 2021. Weather was the primary factor in yesterday’s price movement, but today, there is some concern that the hot weather over the next month may not be tempered by enough rain. Soybean meal ended the day higher while soybean oil was lower.
• Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 20.4 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 3.1 mb for 24/25. This was within trade expectations and better than last week’s sales. Last week’s export shipments of 12.5 mb were below the 13.7 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates. Primary destinations were to Indonesia, the Netherlands, and Egypt.
• Earlier this week, the NOPA crush report showed a crush number that was way above the average trade guesses, but the market did not react which points to trade that is focused on the weather. Crush demand should continue to be strong thanks to crush margins that have become more profitable in the past few weeks.
• For the week, July soybeans lost 19 ¼ and November soybeans lost 29 ¾ to 1120. This bull spreading indicates a demand for cash soybeans and an anticipation of a large soybean crop in the future. July soybean meal lost $6.60 for the week to $361.80, and July soybean oil gained 0.26 cents at 43.94 cents.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• At the risk of sounding like a broken record, wheat was down again today. All three classes closed lower alongside Matif wheat, with Chicago and KC contracts posting double-digit losses. There has not been much change to the news – harvest pressure, a rallying US Dollar, and global wheat conditions looking better than last year are all contributing to weakness.
• According to Interfax, the Russian ag minister has said that their grain exports will have adjusted duties with approval expected July 1. Right now, the proposal is for increased duties on barley, corn, and wheat by 1,000 rubles.
• The USDA reported an increase of 21.7 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and a decrease of 0.4 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 13.4 mb fell under the 15.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 800 mb. Additionally, wheat sale commitments have reached 199 mb for 24/25 which is up 34% from last year.
• Data from FranceAgriMer suggests that the French soft wheat crop conditions are steady at 62% good to excellent. While well below last year’s rating, this does not seem to be offering much support to the French market, with another lower close for Matif wheat today. These contracts have lost roughly 45 euros since the end of May, the equivalent of around $1.20 per bushel.
• According to the USDA as of June 18, approximately 17% of the US winter wheat crop area is experiencing drought; this is a 1% increase from the previous week. Furthermore, only 3% of US spring wheat is said to be in drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures were mostly in the green again today with December futures leading the charge trading 12 cents higher at $19.41. August through October contracts also remain above $20.00/cwt.
• Spot cheese fell for the 4th day in a row for the short week making a total loss of 11.25 cents for the week. Spot cheese has now fallen below $1.89/lb for the first time since May 31st.
• Class IV futures were unchanged on the day with no trading volume.
• Spot butter traded a penny higher to go unchanged for the week at $3.09/lb. Powder improved 1.25 cents on the week to go home at $1.2050/lb.

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Author

Amanda Brill