CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• A good week of exports sales and continued strength in the wheat markets supported corn futures. Corn prices are consolidating at the top of this week’s range going into Friday trade. For the week to this point, July corn traded 9 cents higher, and December added 10 cents.
• USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. USDA announced 1.3 MMT (51.2 mb) of old crop sales and 262,000 MT (10.3 mb) for new crop last week.
• Even as the corn market has rallied this week, average U.S. corn basis levels have firmed in most cash markets. End users are trying to pull bushels in to meet demand, as producers are focused on planting this year’s crop.
• Weather models are predicting warmer but wetter-than-normal conditions over the next two weeks. The current corn planting pace is off to a good start, with areas in the south and the western Corn Belt progressing quickly. The potential for increased precipitation could slow progress going into May.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day mixed again with the front months lower and the new crop contracts higher just as they were yesterday. Soybean futures were significantly lower near midday but recovered into the close with July posting a small loss and ending just below the 40-day moving average. Soybean meal closed lower while soybean oil was higher along with palm oil.
• Today’s export sales report was poor for soybeans with just 12 mb reported total, 8 mb for 23/24 and 4 mb for 24/25. This was below the lower range of trade expectations and puts old crop commitments down 18% from the previous year. Soybean meal sales were on the high end of expectations at 308k tons, and soybean oil sales were also above expectations.
• Brazilian soybean exports are seen reaching 13.48 million tons for the month of April which compares to a forecast of 13.74 million tons the previous week. The strengthening of their currency, the real, makes importing Brazilian beans more expensive and could cause exports to slow slightly.
• In South America, Brazil’s soybean harvest is nearly complete, and Argentina is forecast to get a break from the rain which should help their harvest advance. Argentina is expected to be about 25% complete by the end of this week. In the US, rains have delayed soybean plantings in some areas, but warm weather is in the forecast and should help with emergence.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• All three US wheat classes rallied again today; this marks the fifth consecutive higher close for May Chicago futures. Paris milling wheat futures are also on the rise, with the September contract breaking above the 200-day moving average for the first time since late July of 2023. The US Dollar Index was also lower today, and from a big picture perspective has been declining since April 16; this may be aiding the wheat rally.
• US wheat weekly export sales were poor, with only 3.0 mb reported for 23/24. However, 13.7 mb were reported for 24/25 which, while not stellar, does look a bit better. Additionally, last week’s shipments of 21.1 mb were above the 17.1 mb needed each week to reach the USDA’s 23/24 export estimate of 710 mb.
• According to Pakistan’s Federal Committee on Agriculture, the country will see a grain harvest of 29.7 mmt this year, which is under their 32 mmt target. Wheat production is estimated to be up 5.4% from a year ago, but they may still end up needing to import. In addition, there is still talk that India will need to import 3-5 mmt of wheat as well. Their supplies are said to be at a 16-year low, after the government sold wheat out of the reserves to reduce food prices.
• Dry conditions are expected in Australia for most areas over the next week, but western regions and the east coast may see some shower activity. In any case, soil moisture is fair to poor in wheat planting areas. This may lead to some planting delays as farmers wait for moisture levels to improve.
• According to the USDA, as of April 23 about 30% of the US winter wheat area is in drought, a sharp increase from 24% last week. With rain set to hit most of the Midwest this week and into the weekend, some of the dryness may be alleviated, however. In addition, 26% of US spring wheat acres are said to be in drought, unchanged from a week ago.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures rebounded nicely today with the May contract leading the way, closing 40 cents higher at $18.18.
• Spot cheese was unchanged on 3 loads traded today, entering Friday up 8.50 cents on the week at $1.7550/lb. Whey was up 1.25 cents.
• Class IV futures did not quite erase their Wednesday losses, but the June through October contracts garnered double-digit gains.
• Spot butter was unchanged at $2.9675/lb, entering Friday up 4.75 cents for the week so far, while powder was up 1.25 cents on Thursday.

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Author

Amanda Brill