CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures broke through key support levels on Thursday as the stronger US Dollar and selling pressure in the soybean market pushed prices lower. July corn closed at its lowest point since February 27.
• The weak price action leaves the market vulnerable to additional selling pressure going into the end of the week. July futures are trading 11 cents lower on the week going into Friday trade.
• Strong trade in the US Dollar versus the Brazilian Real currency has pressured corn and soybean futures. The Brazilian Real has closed at 5-month lows against the dollar, which has triggered strong producer selling of both corn and soybeans, weighing on futures prices.
• Weekly export sales for corn came in at 19.7 mb (501,200 mt). Total new sales were within market expectations, but off 54% from the 4-week average. Total commitments are now at 1.759 billion bushels, up 18% from last year.
• The corn market may see additional selling pressure moving into the end of the month. Producers who hold May basis contracts will need to price or roll those contracts by first notice day, April 30, for May futures. This could bring a natural selling environment into the weak market tone for the corn market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed sharply lower today as prices faded continuously throughout the day. The July contract is now just 8 ½ cents away from the 1140 ½ contract low from late February. That level will be important to hold and could act as support. Both soybean meal and oil closed lower, but soybean oil posted larger losses, down nearly 2% as palm oil fell.
• Today’s export sales report for soybeans showed an increase of 17.8 mb of sales for 23/24 and an increase of 9.7 mb for 24/25. Sales commitments now total 1.517 bb and are down 18% from a year ago, versus the USDA’s new projection of down 15%. Last week’s export shipments of 17.7 mb were above the 13.0 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate of 1.700 bb for 23/24. Primary destinations were to China, Indonesia, and Germany.
• On the positive side, US soybeans are much more competitive with Brazilian offers than they were a year ago. This could mean that the export window in the US could open sooner than it did last year. For the time being, export demand is poor, while domestic demand is at least firm with a record NOPA crush reported on Monday.
• In South America, the Brazilian harvest is now nearly 90% complete but there are very large discrepancies between production estimates which is odd considering that the work is nearly done. Argentina’s harvest is estimated to be 11% complete as of last week and that estimate will be revised again today or tomorrow.
• Strong trade in the US Dollar versus the Brazilian Real currency has pressured corn and soybean futures. The Brazilian Real has closed at 5-month lows against the dollar, which has triggered strong producer selling of both corn and soybeans, weighing on futures prices.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Except for May Chicago, all three wheat classes posted gains today. This is despite a higher US Dollar today, and disappointing export sales. Support came from a higher close in Paris milling wheat futures, along with a possible correction from technically oversold conditions.
• The USDA reported net cancellations of 3.4 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24, but an increase of 8.2 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 17.9 mb exceeded the 17.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s goal of 710 mb.
• More rain is moving across parts of the western Corn Belt with the heaviest precipitation in west-central Nebraska, northeast Kansas, and northwest Missouri. While not yet reflected by the US drought monitor, this should help with drought conditions on next week’s release. However, the southwestern Plains continue to be in need of more rain, having missed out on this system.
• According to the USDA as of April 16, 24% of the US winter wheat crop is experiencing drought. This is a relatively significant jump from 18% last week. In addition, 26% of the spring wheat growing area is in drought, which is unchanged from last week.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecasts that Argentina’s wheat plantings for the upcoming year will remain steady at 5.9 million hectares, mirroring last year’s figures. Planting typically occurs during June and July, and although conditions are expected to be favorable, concerns about the potential impact of La Niña persist. Meanwhile, in France, soft wheat plantings are estimated to decrease by 8% to 4.4 million hectares. Heavy rains since mid-October led to a 6% reduction in their total grain area.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were mostly green today with the second month May contract garnering 16 cents to close at $17.38, a two-month high on the continuous chart.
• Spot cheese was unchanged at $1.61/lb for the second day in a row today, although this time with no loads traded. $1.6425/lb was the late February peak.
• Class IV milk futures were under minor pressure in the May through October contracts. The second month May future sits at $20.20.
• Spot trade for the Class IV products was quiet with a half-cent drop in butter and a quarter-cent jump in powder.

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Author

Brandon Doherty