CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn remains a follower of other grains as fresh news is lacking in the corn market. Wednesday’s lower prices saw continued choppy trade with a narrow daily trading range.
• The weekly ethanol production report saw ethanol production for the week drop 6.9% lower than last week and 4.0% from last year to 983 million barrels/day. Total corn used for ethanol production last week was 97.57 mb, which was light to meet the average needed to reach USDA targets. Current ethanol stocks are plentiful, running 3.15% over last year.
• The USDA will release weekly export sales tomorrow morning. Last week saw disappointing corn sales totals of 326,000 mt. The market will be looking for new sales to total closer to the 1.0 mmt mark. Current corn sales and shipments are trending well ahead of last year’s levels.
• A strong weather system followed by cool temperatures will likely slow the planting pace in many areas of the Corn Belt into the end of the week. Last week, corn planting was 6% complete nationally.
• The corn market may see additional selling pressure moving into the end of the month. Producers who hold basis contracts will need to price or roll those contracts by first notice day, April 30, for May futures. This could bring a natural selling environment into the weak market tone for the corn market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher but have trended significantly lower since the recent high, which was made on March 21. July futures are now down 76 cents from that point and are also only 24 cents above the contract low from the end of February. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher as well.
• Soybean sales estimates for tomorrow’s export sales report are between 250,000 and 400,000 mt. There were three flash sales reported last week to unknown destinations which will show up in tomorrow’s report. Export activity has been sluggish, attributed to the ongoing Brazilian harvest.
• In Brazil, soybean exports for April are projected to hit 13.74 mmt, up from the previous month’s 12.73 mmt. Sales for the 23/24 season are anticipated to reach 41.6% of the expected output, slightly lower than the 43% recorded in the previous year. Estimates for the country’s total production vary, with the USDA providing a high-end estimate of 156 mmt.
• Monday’s NOPA crush report brought positive news regarding the crush side, revealing that 196.406 mb were crushed in March, indicating robust domestic demand. However, the unexpectedly higher soybean oil stocks had a bearish impact.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower across the board, with both Chicago and KC posting double-digit losses, despite some easing up of the US Dollar. Matif futures also settled lower on the day, even though the overly wet conditions in France and parts of Europe that are affecting the crop. With little fundamental news to support today’s move, it may be mostly technical in nature.
• Precipitation this week throughout the Midwest and the Plains will benefit both spring and winter wheat conditions. However, southern wheat areas like Kansas did not receive much of the moisture, which may keep their winter wheat crop conditions on the lower side.
• The International Grains Council reports that the May FOB price for Russian wheat remains at $210 per mt, exerting continued pressure on the US market. Furthermore, LSEG Commodities Research has revised their estimate for Russian wheat production to 89.8 mmt, a 1.6% increase from their previous forecast. This projection excludes wheat production from occupied Ukrainian territory, and the rise in production is attributed to favorable weather conditions, including warmer temperatures and adequate soil moisture levels, benefiting both winter and spring wheat crops.
• Iraq’s Minister of Commerce claims that the country is self-sufficient in food and wheat supplies for six months. Moreover, the Ministry of Agriculture anticipates a wheat harvest exceeding seven mmt. It’s reported that Iraq requires between 4.5 to 5 mmt of wheat annually to meet the needs of its 43 million people.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were spooked when a load of block cheese traded 3c below yesterday’s close mid-session. However, by the end of the day, cheese closed unchanged at $1.61/lb.
• Class III futures had a volatile day, trading nearly 50c lower in the middle of the cheese session, but settling down just 9 to 10c by close.
• Spot whey had a second consecutive day of steady bidding, as 5 loads traded and the market closed up 0.25c to $0.3825/lb.
• Class IV futures were under pressure from a soft powder and butter trade. Contracts still hold well over $20.00, however.
• The next couple of days will be important to see how dairy finishes the week. Recent rallies have run into heavy selling pressure, so it’ll be interesting to see if this one can hold or not.

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Author

Amanda Brill